In the editorial we had a disagreement on starting the mockdraft season this early, but we wanted to see how the Averege Draft Positions are after Free Agency and before Draft.
The 4 of us did a 10 person, HALF PPR, snake draft. I picked at 6, so in the middle in every round, we agreed that we will follow a specific, experimental strategy, and we commit to that.
I like to go RB heavy on my drafts, but i wanted to try out something. I usally stream TE on a weekly basis, and i always have a really good RB option on my bench, so i thought lets try to get one of the two premium TE (Kelce or Kittle), and see how the board reacts. Of course in my first 5 round i want to have at least 2 safe RB, with a secure floor, a flex, a WR with a good amount of touches, and my TE. After that, it would be a BPA (best player available), and upside search.
In the 6th pick, I was already in a headscratcher situation. I had to choose between Elliott, Taylor, Chubb. Because of the potential RBBC in Indiana, and Chubb not being part if the passing game (I rank Chubb over Taylor), i went with Elliott. He was a Fantasy RB11, that is really disappointing considering his draft value in 2020. But we can expect better from Elliott, since Prescott is coming back, there will be more goalline work. He has a safe floor with near 20 touch per game. I hope McCarthy agrees with me as well.
Ok…Kelce was out, just a couple of pick ahead of me…no panic, we have Kittle still on the board, not ideal, but we can keep our strategy. Since he is coming back from injury, he was back end of the year, that is promising. Still better option than Waller. I am not high on the 49ers right now, but Kittle can be a target hog. I think this a reach for him, i think he is more a late 2nd or early 3rd round pick.
I was out to get an RB again. and a real workhorse back was still in. David Mongomery is my pick. His ADP is in the late 3rd and early 4th, I think he is a great addition, and end of the 2020 season he delivered champinships to owners. I hope Nagy will keep up his usage numbers, and get him more goalline opportunities. He has a safe floor, despite the fact that Cohen returns to the team, and get the passing segment of the backfield, i think that is not a concern.
This round I had to go for WR with a good amount of targets. I had Julio Jones, Terry McLaurin and Amari Cooper as a candidate, but Falcons has a new HC, Washington is really unclear on the QB side, and Cowboys will add more targets to Lamb, so i went with Jefferson from the Vikings. I don expect him to be the number one redzone target, but i really think he can have a safe floor with the targets he will get. And we saw he can make plays after the catch.
So it hit me by suprise how the RBs were gone, of course there were David Johnson, and Melvin Gordon on the board, they were the only backs, with a slighly chance to be in an RB1 production range. I think Gordon was a great value pick last year, with Lindsey out of the picture, he can thrive in this offense.
About the others picks just short.
At this point i guess everybody is on the Stafford-Rams train, and i must say this a good train to be, especially at this pont of the draft, Cooper Kupp can re-emerge as a WR1 and as a Redzone target for the new QB. I am happy with the pick.
No mentionable RB, so i turned to the WR pool, and lucky me DJ Moore was still on the board. The lack of TDs are an issue, but the volumen is huge, so to have him on my bench is a steal, and he can jump in if the matchup is in his favor.
On the RB position you can not be secured enough, so i went with Moss. The reason is simple, i think the Bills will split the carries 50-50 between the backs, but the goalline work will be dominated by the sophomore RB. We are in upside territory.
I had some technical difficulty, so i ran out of time, so i got Jalen Hurts. Not going to lie, i hate this pick. He is on my most likely to bust shelf. But this happens on real fantasy drafts so we move on.
This point i only hunt for upside, high risk and high reward players. For example I like to target player returning from injury, who slipped under the radar. (Perine is the RB1 on the Jets depth chart for now, so not leaving him for someone else.)
I wanted to go with a second QB, who is really risky, but can pay off. I went with Wentz. Lets see, if Reich can get the best out of him.
- The early TE pick has a price. If you cant draft Kelce, wait on TE. Even after round 10 can find upside, no need to rush (Smith, Everett, Higbee, Kmet, Tonyan, etv)
- Workhorse RBs are flying off the shelves.
- Wait on QBs but not to much. 5-10 is a good range to secure a QB.
- There is depth on WR
- Rookies will have an impact, but not that much!
- APDs are really not relaible at this time of the offseason.
Draft Board: https://fantasyfootballcalculator.com/draft/9351096