The biggest story on the first day of the drafts are always the quarterbacks (QB). Every year there is a huge race for the best prospects, and to move up, a team have to burn a lot of (future) picks.
Every team wants a great QB, or at least the best for there system, so the draft is a very delicate matter. Good and bad picks can define a team’s future. There are a lot of interesting QB prospect in this class, and there are teams with gapping hole on this position.
Last year the Glennon – Luton – Minshew rotation was not working out for the team, and after a poor year, and with the surprising wins from the Jets, they have the first pick in the draft. Since moving away from Bortles they did not found a QB1. They are in the best position to get a young centerpiece to build around. The new head coach have a clean slate to draft the best QB for his system. For Mayer the biggest challenge will be the turf war between him and the GM.
(Dont need to panic, worst case scenario Cardale Jones és J. T. Barrett are free agents)
QB draft chance: 99%
New York Jets
Darnold is the past in New York. It became clear, they will have a new QB for 2021. Drafting a QB would be an obvious pick in 1/2, but they can not avoid the fact, that they were unable to defend Darnold. In 3 years 98 sack, could break any QB. They should go for a QB who can lead a rebuild, and make the most of a bad situation.
QB draft chance: 99%
San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers already traded up, and we can safely assume they are not out to get a kicker. In the Shanahan system, elite and skilled QB is not a must have. It is more about delivering on first read, stability, and high game IQ, since the team is running complex plays.
Just a reminder:
QB draft chance: 75%
First, let’s get straight. Fangio is on a hot seat, he wont get to burn any picks on his demand. The only way to get a QB if someone fall down the board. In that place there is high chance that they could only get a project QB, but not sure that they would. That would not be good use for Fangio. So more likely the team is stuck with Lock.
QB draft chance: 30%
New England Patriots
It was quite a surprise that Cam Newton was back with the Pats with a short, and cheap contract. The 15th pick is not optimal, trading up would cost the team. Moving up would be really unexpected from Bill Belichick. After an aggressive offseason, getting a new QB in New England could be last step in there rebuild?
QB draft chance: 40%
Las Vegas Raiders – In the Gruden are, Carr’s position is constantly questioned. Unanticipated moves are not fat from Gruden.
Washington Football Team – Fitzpatrick is not a long term solution. They could be interested in a QB, but not desperate
Chicago Bears – Dalton is the starter. The coach and GM is after there last chance, so i don’t think they will have draft picks to burn, for any movement.
(Steelers and Saints – They can be interested a QB if someone slides down)
DISCLAMER: This in no an order, or ranking.
Trevor Lawrence – This player is the only NFL ready QB in the class. Every aspect of his game is good at least, he has no eye-catching weakness, but hi is also not exceptional in any attribute as well. He is the full package. I think the overreaction around him is not helping him, it is almost impossible to live up to this hype. He will be a great cornerstone for any rebuilding franchise (Jags, Jets). Could be great with a dual threat RB (as he was heavily relied on Etienne). The Jets would be the most surprised is he would not be the number one pick.
Similar style QB: Tannehill, Brees, Palmer
Justin Fields – The least system QB of this class. He has some consistency issues, but he is great in the pocket, his mobility and creativity can extend the plays, and hi is not bad at second read. Fields deep balls are undervalued. A player like him can be a great impact on rebuilding team like the Jets, he could be good even playing behind a bad offensive line.
Similar style QB: Watson, Prescott, Newton
Zach Wilson – It’s almost impossible to talk black and white when it come to Wilson. He has the highest ceiling from the QBs. Throws a beautiful ball, and has great footwork, and makes smart decisions. He is from BYU, not in the most competitive conference, the team had very high average win difference. He has only 2 post season games. So the question is, would he be this great in a game under elite pressure. For a rebuilding team it would be also risky, because he is not used to trailing, and playing from behind.
Similar style QB: Goff, Ryan, Rodgers
Mac Jones – very intelligent QB, who is a great decision maker, and executes playcalls efficiently. A lot of analyst thinks that his number are inflated, but 41 TD and 4 INT is very impressive. There are rumours that he can be a top 5 pick. And his numbers would back that statement. But looking behind the numbers, he is not mobile, and not good creating opportunities and improvising. Although hi throws a great ball, he has ball security, and can orchestrate complex systems. Hi would be an excellent system QB from week 1.
Similar style QB: Brady, Bridgewater, Bortles
Trey Lance – Strongest arm in the class. Based on his only full year, he would be a raw talent, rough around the edges. Definitely needs some polishing. In 2019 he run for more than 1000 yards, so he is comfortable on the ground. He needs to improve on second read, he tends to run more when the first read option is locked. He opted out 2020, still he can be a great pick.
Similar style QB: Allen, Vick, RGIII
Kyle Trask, Kellen Mond, Davis Mills, Sam Ehlinger
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